What we want to be true doesn't become true because we want it (to be true).
Twittercounter says that @riscario (twitter.com/riscario) has 18,000 followers. That's the Twitter channel that accompanies this blog. Sceptical? Take a look at this screen shot.
Now do you believe? Me neither. The normal audience is several hundred.
An audience of 18,032 followers would make @riscario #12,178 on Twitter according to the screen shot from twittercounter.com. Click on it for a larger version.
There are techniques to get thousands of followers on Twitter. They seem to involve you following thousands of people and them reciprocating. You can get quantity quickly, but quality takes time. The growth of @riscario is organic, and slow. That's fine.
The Real Rank
The correct rank for @riscario is #160,191 based on 290 followers. That may underwhelm you, but there are over 100 million Twitter users. That impressive total is misleading because many accounts are dormant.
If you define a true Twitter user as
10+ followers, and
10+ friends, and
10+ tweets
then only 29% qualify. That's still 2.9 million users and up from 21% in January 2010.
This three-month graph shows the statistics returning to normal.
Notice how the trend looks consistent and predictive … until the drop two days ago.
@what
The Twitter channel @riscario (twitter.com/riscario) supplements this blog and the podcast. You'll find an update on most days. If you're more interested in marketing, there's @mActuary (twitter.com/mActuary), which supplements my Marketing Actuary blog for entrepreneurs. Again, the goal is one meaningful tweet per day.
Some Twitter users have thousands and thousands of tweets, adding many daily. Ranking high on that list would scare me. Time is too precious to fritter.
We're not talking about a butterfly across the ocean causing a storm just after you wash you car. The causality is hard to show and the effects are minor. Instead, think of beavers. They use renewable resources to build nice homes with swimming pools. They're happy but they flood land above their dams and send less water downstream.
Golf
The RBC Canadian Open is making golf fans happy and stimulating the Toronto economy. What's the effect on the residential neighbourhood surrounding St. George's Golf and Country Club?
We live inside the No Parking blue zone but not in the smaller Local Traffic Only zone. A portion of Islington Avenue, a major road, is closed from July 12-30. The detours are putting more traffic on other streets like The Kingsway, Kipling and Eglington.
We're still getting city services like garbage collection. Traffic isn't bad enough to require the police to direct it. Drivers aren't honking their horns in frustration. Life is fairly normal.
Here are three externalities
cars park just outside the No Parking zone
the MetLife blimp in the skies is more intrusive than the satellite view in Google Maps but they're probably not recording activities in our yard (aside: my first fulltime job was with MetLife)
some neighbours are renting parking on their driveways and lawns for $20 to (gulp) $50, depending on the day and location. The official parking is at the distant Woodbine Racetrack with yellow school buses as shuttles. No air conditioning.
Overall, the event looks well-organized. Planning started three years ago. The disruptions are limited because of school holidays and summer vacations. Other neighbours may feel differently depending on where they live. Some businesses may have extra customers.
Win/Lose
Other activities may have greater externalities. Let's look at some.
Down the street, a neighbour feeds racoons. This makes her happy but they damage and defecate on nearby lawns. Logic doesn't work well with animal lovers who ignore these consequences
Our Costco started selling gasoline last month: premium fuel is about the price that other gas stations charge for regular. The regular gas stations are probably losing business.
Drivers with radar detectors zip faster with impunity. This encourages other drivers to speed too … but they're more likely to get caught.
Some people engage in dangerous sports and endanger the lives of the rescue crews.
Addictions like drinking, smoking and gambling may give participants satisfaction (at least in the beginning) but there are huge consequences for families and society overall. Car accidents. Second-hand smoke. Bankruptcy and crime.
The tax-free underground economy helps participants but honest taxpayers make up the lost revenue. We benefit when tax auditors catch the culprits but about 50% the audits found no unreported income.
There's also the Planet of the Apes series. Depending on movie, apes are slaves to humans or vice versa. That's win/lose too.
Inducements
Businesses take steps to induce behaviour. McDonalds is selling any size of soft drink for $1. That's cheaper than water. However, those buying the largest sizes and conditioning their bodies to consume them are inflicting harm on themselves.
Governments take steps to induce taxpayers to act in ways that benefit society. Some incentives create tax savings for a few, which shifts the tax burden to the masses. To limit these side effect, governments take steps to limit the size of the benefits. That helps maintain tax revenue. Here are common tax saving tools.
investment loans: limits on interest deductibility based on the investments made
Unblocking The Restrictions
Hybrid technology improves fuel economy, but can boost performance instead. It's unlikely that Porsche and BMW are striving to beat the fuel efficiency of the Prius.
On the financial side, the wealthy say they most want tax advice and income tax strategy (67%). They expect frequent, proactive advice and aggressive recommendations. The right advisor can propose creative strategies and --- more important --- implement them effectively.
For instance, life insurance has unique tax advantages. Deposits are capped by the Maximum Tax Actuarial Reserve (MTAR) but you can deposit more by simply buying more insurance. Withdrawals are taxable but the savings can be accessed via tax-free loans. Tax deductions arise when the loan proceeds are invested. In some cases, a portion of the premium can be made tax deductible too.
There are probably other tools with effective tax strategies too.
When there are side effects, why not join the winners? You can. Even if you live near a golf course.
%5B3%5D.png "Twittercounter bug - riscario 18K followers (2010-07-29)")
%5B11%5D.png "Click to enlarge")
%5B5%5D.png "twittercounter bug - riscario fix (2010-07-29)")
%20250x343%5B5%5D.jpg "RBC Cdn Open - MetLife blimp (Jul 2010) 250x343")
